Longhorn Weather

Remember how a post or two ago I posted that there was a chance of severe weather and snow? Well the snow chance is what we are looking at today!

We’ll have rain Friday night and into Saturday. Well another system will come over the area later Saturday after the cold air comes in. A upper level system will go somewhere..yes somewhere! Here is the options right now: That’s the options at this point. We are leaning to option 1 right now. Snow would likely be along the Red River and northward, but can’t be ruled out in the metro..and any further south than that, none. We are waiting on some new data and will post when we can have a clearer idea because the models are not on any kind of agreement right now.

Zach

We have already seen some severe weather and we are in that season. As Hunter and I explained in the last post we are geared up for a active year because of the El Nino.

Tanner pointed out to me today that there was a possible outbreak coming up for the Texas to Georgia area in about 2 weeks. Of course being 2 weeks away it’s going to change, but not only has the data been right, but so has Tanner in long range forecasting. So far he has accurately forecast 4 events…2 severe..2 winter. We’ll have to watch this very closely, because we could be on the verge of snow? Wait just a second! Now remember that..with that we could be too cool for severe weather..but we could be so cold we have snow!

Well the models have been for a few days now showing a wind pattern change that could just bring a late snowfall to North Texas! Not only that, but it’s looking like a McFarland Signature..when the winds go way up to the North Pole and swing southward bringing cold air. That’s the cold air..and there will be a system with us at that time…are you ready for more snow..or severe weather! All this looks to be around March 23 and with it being that far out expect some changes. Stay with us for more updates on this crazy possibility!

Zach

Well we have talked about El Nino many times in the blog. El Nino being warmer waters in the Pacific causing North Texas to see a colder and wetter pattern.  History so far is repeating it self. Remember we said there would be a big Winter here? Well we got that right, and if history continues repeating itself we could see something like we did in the 70s and 90s. Of those 20 years about 4 of the Springs had a El Nino like this.  Those years we had major flooding and quite a few tornadoes and severe storms. Hunter let me hand it over to you to explain on that:

Basically i am going to throw down the bottom line for this spring. As Zach was mentioning we are still in a El’ Nino type pattern where the subtropical jet is dominating through the southern tier of the CONUS. But the El’ Nino is expected to start waining out. What does this mean for this spring season? Well its gonna be a relative tough forecast on how active the severe will be. Temperatures during the major months for severe season are below average for the plains indicating there is a trough in place with above average temps for the eastern US. But this can dramatically shift over the next several months. this is gonna be the crucial key for on how much severe weather occurs across the plains. If the trough sets up through the plains then you are set for one active year but if the new outlooks area correct its the gulf states that will see the action. El Ninos are not really truly known for active years unlike neutral signal are. As well precipitation is expected to be well above average for almost the entire nation. Continuation of the sub-tropical jet will keep a persistent moist flow over the southern US which will lead to flooding problems this year.
Thank you Hunter!

So you may be ready for Spring, but are you ready for severe weather? You should always have a way to monitor Longhorn Weather, have your TV on. A non electric phone, and a weather radio. Flash lights need to have fresh batteries and have a plan in case if there is a tornado warning.

Stay safe!

-Zach and Hunter

Well today north of I-20 it was Snowmageddon wannabe and south it was Snowmageddon! But we are only 1.9″ away from making this the snowiest winter at DFW airport and we are forecasting more snow!

Well we have had quite a few snows this winter season here in North Texas and things are just getting started….so far today (2/23) things have stayed in the southern portion of North Texas. Friday morning we are going to have to watch though. At this point it’s going to be in the East/Northeast area of the region, but this is still far out in the weather world so it will change. Now Monday looks interesting as well. Right now we are seeing cold air in place and then a system comes in. The computer guidance right now is saying that the whole area could see snow and it could be a few inches. This is a week out so it’s a definite that it will change. Still stay with us and we’ll keep you updated on what and where and when.

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-Zach

More snow? Well it is possible next week on Tuesday, but I must be honest. We are not very happy with the current computer guidance. The guidance is flip flopping with no snow and then rain. Now it’s flip flopping on a rain and snow mix and just straight snow (and a lot of it!).

In the short term things look okay. Mild temperatures and cool mornings. Sunday we could have a rumble of thunder and then cold air filters in Monday. Tuesday we’ll have the cold air in place and we’ll be have lift to produce precipitation. The afternoon guidance had 2-4″ of snow and the morning ones had none! So keep with us on the snow possibility next week!

Zach

The El Nino is in full force! Let me tell you what that is first…El Nino means “the boy” is Spanish..interesting isn’t it! But in weather it means the warming of ocean temperatures in the Pacific. La Nina..what we had last year means “the girl,” but in weather it means..what do you think? COOLING of the Pacific Ocean. When we have a La Nina we see calm hurricane season and in fact the southern states tend to be dry and hot. In a El Nino, my favorite, the hurricane season is active and the southern states are cold and wet! When we see a El Nino in the winter here in North Texas are typically cold and wet..snowy and icy if you will. Already we have seen 4 accumulating winter events here.  December 2, Christmas, and the Tuesday after. Then back in January when we had minor icing. The Red River had some a couple weeks ago along with a few metro cities, but it was not widespread..you can count it if you like tough..if so 5 events. But how about a 5th/6th one? Well we have a system coming from the Pacific Ocean on Thursday and here is the rule..north of me is frosty and south of me is rainy. Get it? When you are on or south of a system your going to get rain..and if your north of it then winter prevails! Right not it looks like we’ll be NORTH of this system on Thursday and because of the consistence of the computer models (what calculates the weather equations for us..are we lazy? No..they just so long!!!! Then it paints a pretty picture and we read it and tell you all about it here…) and I won’t put a biased for winter to it…50-60 percent chance at it…with biased..70 percent maybe 80. So we’ll have to keep a  eye on this storm very closely!

Zach

Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow!

That’s what I’ll be saying oh so very soon I hope! We have finally broken up the rain and pushed it the the east but the clouds and fog and the damp weather continues. Not to mention the cool temperatures. I do love the cool temperatures after our hot summers and I am looking forward to our weather!

Sunday and Monday we will have a system come over and have a nice bucket of rain come over us and spill onto us..but that bucket is going to get chilly when a cold front comes in and as the air cools we are going to possible see a changeover  to snow! I am not going to talk accumulations on that yet because of uncertainty.  Rainy though…and we’ll watch to see if it changes over.

Then we have Thursday of next week! That looks more promising. Once again we’ll have freezing temperatures and precipitation is possible..therefore snow showers are possible. Then we have around Presidents Day….we’ll have to watch this one close..it could be THE SNOWSTORM!

Zach

It’s been a week almost since the Haitian quake and survivors are still be pulled from the rumble. I’d guesstimate almost a billion dollars has been raised and is still be donated. We here at LW have donated. Please donate if you can….but there is one thing you can do….pray.

BIG STORMS IN JANUARY!!!! WHAT! NOOOOOO! Well it looks like there may be some big storms around DFW on Wednesday….but the dryline may be to our east when we can see storm development…but we’ll have to watch it. Stay with LW and all of our partners.

Well after hours of scripting we got the NEW! Longhorn Weather up….and we continue to make improvements.

Keep on reading the forecast and the blog for updates on weather and other news.

Yours,

Zach

DETAILS OF THE QUAKE AT BOTTOM

HOW TO HELP:

YOU CAN DONATE TO THE AMERICAN RED CROSS HERE: https://american.redcross.org/site/Donation2?4306.donation=form1&idb=428732091&df_id=4306&JServSessionIdr004=yxa9a0v901.app194a

ALSO YOU CAN DONATE TO UNICEF (Unite for Children) HERE:

www.unicefusa.org/haitiquake

DONATE TO OPERATION USA HERE:

https://donate.opusa.org/?

DONATE TO WORLD VISION HERE:

http://donate.worldvision.org/OA_HTML/xxwv2ibeCCtpItmDspRte.jsp?funnel=dn&item=1958776&section=10324 go=itemdaniel_prod_ses=ZG15770F92B0EAE137D88C8AC429B52D74FF0F58495CF2850136B357936E1830226DDAE27CD68C6E6C618D6D99387AA6A47CA7EB35D6FE608A4E79C26F89B4E062D1699AFEE7006E6EA25452249103B6180F181C06225F2644763803443B00A56BA9358465A99A5787124548A2F732914F8073FDA46C485596F8A1369E268144AF4BBD80D7E65078668677F98AC9818858C411BED32C097B456A49B66D137E3C0B5CB43A6A713D0A6C4DFD45D477D65DF155CF094BDF7F19B0D461EFF87D75BD5DEE2F59F0357D524A1D2B0843AC5F475E19D912D67C863E45C42CA13CEF493D862901356A9BD89CDC5CB587E2D3145430F79D16238E150180B5531226618730E9349B914DB2312D0A3071FE5D242172A59B9E138F21CCEFAC81686779B3EB2A0BCB1809FDCC93A390B15469A0CE046694A31EE53AD65FAF39B6E941C0C9DE7B6C660FE5CB9934217910EB9B1AE5B140EFADEE6CBD18C617795796F450E1AEF610731A12820308051D660F007E994EB4000F905BFAF9084AD3B29362F618B7B69EF90D51417BC942DC7ABE96BE28537971B0F5A1FFE3CC3AF32541E9C9E48079133C6B44C3E202754A

The worst quake for Haiti EVER has taken place. The quake was a 7.0 at 4:53 our time and images I will NOT post because of the devastation. Words tell it all. Over 10 aftershocks…estimated 18 aftershocks of 4.6 to 5.9 with the latest being a 4.7 taking place at 9:31 our time. Thousands are feared dead and millions in damage. The quake took place 10 miles southwest of the capital. Presidents Palace has been destroyed and people are trapped and feared dead. Communication is really gone..few reports are coming in because of this. President Obama and Former President Clinton have sent aid…Clinton as some may not know has been helping the UN help Haiti. 80% of the population is below the poverty line and because of its location it is affected by many tropical systems every year..which makes matter worse. As you may know Haiti is one of the poorest countries in the Americas. Luckily weather wise it looks dry. It can rain for just a few minutes be knee deep in water…so the dryness is good.

I know this appears to be smushed together but at this moment I just wanted to get everything out and will edit over it as I read through reports.

Well the arctic blast has lost its grip on North Texas and the tranquil weather has a nice hold…but its no match for the upcoming storm.

A storm right now over the Pacific will move into California and make a hard right turn south and then east once it hits Mexico. The rain coverage will be widespread…probably 100 percent of us see rain and a lot of it. At this point from Wednesday to Saturday 3 plus inches of rain is possible. New models have come in a bit drier but still a lot of rain. Flash Flooding guidance shows about 3.5 inches of rain would have to fall over 6 hours before we saw any  flash flooding. So I think that the main threat will be the heavy rain…but it does bare watching as the mid levels lack instability at this moment…but that could change and we certainly could have some flash flood.

Zach